My first thread in over a year

[Autumn]

Anytime you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance of getting heads, and a 50% chance of getting tails. (It's either one or the other)

However.

After flipping the coin and it being heads (1 flip), if you flip it again you have a 50% chance of getting heads, and a 50% chance of getting tails(2nd flip).

1st Flip Heads
2nd Flip: Heads or Tails

Outcome 2/3 or 66% probability.


I wrote this for anyone who is not understand the concept. I didnt read all these posts because they are filled with people getting too personal and correcting grammar mistakes and other bullsh t.

Maybe you should've read all the posts because I did explain the intuition and theory behind the answer in the first page of this thread. However, I'm not sure about the validity of your reasoning. It seems you're saying there are 3 possible outcomes and Heads makes up two of these potential outcomes. But that's not the set up of the problem: the first outcome is fixed so there's no randomness to it at the time of the second flip. The probability of the second flip being Heads or Tails is 1, which is not insightful. 2/3 is the expected probability of getting heads in the second flip, not getting 2 heads in 2 flips.

Furthermore, if you took the time to read the initial question more carefully, you'd have seen the problem is based on the premise that you do not know the true probability of getting Heads. Yes, it maybe 50% and can be, but you do not know this.

Also, Meier Link is simply unreasonable (pun intended). I know I'm right.