Quote Originally Posted by Meier Link View Post
In reality you still have a 49.9/100% chance of getting heads. You honestly don't have a true 50/50 chance seeing there is the third side to the coin which is sides.

So on average you have a 49.9% chance that it will be heads and the same of it being tales with a .2% chance that it will mystically land on its side.

The logical explination of this is the fact that you are flipping the coin so even if you some how weighted either side of the coin to "help" improve apon your statistic the outcome is still the same a 49.9% chance. Angles, deflection, and leveling have nothing and everything to do with the pure luck of the draw. You flip it so by shear volume mass you have statiscly screwed yourself into giving yourself this percentage. Now if you rolled the coin then your percentages would change drastically if the coin was weighted to one side but this is not the case.

Of course if the coin is duel sided the you still have the chance that it would land on its side, which would be .2%. Unless this coin that we have "no prior knowledge of" has a face of .032 and a width (side) of 3 inches. Then statistically it would almost always land on its side.

Limiting your question shows nothing and will also help to proove nothing. By doing this even if someone was to guess the correct responce you could still say "no" and change your secnario to suit your favor.
You're the one who doesn't understand statistics.

"49.9/100%"? I hope you can see the mistake here.

Yes, there is a chance that a coin will land on its side when flipped, but as I said before this probability is almost surely 0. Not your arbitrarily chosen 0.2% of landing on its side. The proof is an appeal to the Strong law of large numbers.

In fact, your third paragraph seems to be alluding to the Strong law of large numbers. However, your use of language is so incoherent I have difficulty recognizing your argument. I'll assume you're telling me that if the probability of getting heads is 50% and you flip the coin then the probability is 50%. Yes, tautology is tautologous.

Did you even read my explanation? The only "limits" I'm placing are that this coin has a heads and tails side, with a probability unknown to you of getting heads on a flip. Again, I'll say the chance of the coin landing on the side is almost surely 0. There's no other trick involved, like rolling the coin. What you seem unable to grasp is that situation involves the coin already being flipped once and you have seen that outcome to be heads.

You don't know the true probability of getting heads. You do know that probability by definition lies in the [0,1] range. The intuition to solving this problem is that for any given probability, p, you can flip the coin N number of times but when you flip the coin and you get tails the first time then you as good as discard this result because you have the knowledge that the first outcome has to be heads. For low values of getting heads (p) you'll be discarding more results, so your average or expected probability of getting heads must be over 50%. If you formally do the mathematics you'll get the result of 2/3.