Prediction:

We're going to see the return of "always-on" as an option. Family sharing will make a return with this option. Selling your digital licenses will be coming. (Microsoft, or the publisher, or both, will take a cut). Disc-based installs will probably remain, but you'll still need to purchase a license online to play it without the disc.

The #1 mistake that Microsoft made is not offering it as an option. This whole mess could have been avoided. The "digital future" is coming, and now was a perfectly fine time to start shaping it. But people are not ready to take a leap of faith. They need to ease people in. Giving people an option was the best way they could have done this, and I still think they're going to.