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Thread: Despite What You May WANT To Believe. Liking Obama is Now The Minority Opinion

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    #LOCKE4GOD Despite What You May WANT To Believe.  Liking Obama is Now The Minority Opinion Alpha's Avatar
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    Re: Despite What You May WANT To Believe. Liking Obama is Now The Minority Opinion

    Well actually there is a second side to the data. Rasmussen Reports use a 'likely voter' model for their polls, rather than including all adults. This means two things. Firstly, in general, this results in a slight conservative bias. I read a university study once which concluded that Rasmussen typically has a ~3.9% Republican bias. Similarly in New Zealand; likely voter polls follow the same trend. Secondly, it means you need to stop saying that the majority dislike Obama. Given American voter turnout is dismal, nearly half of the country doesn't care or is indifferent.

    Subtracting 3.9% from the result of the healthcare poll puts it at less than 50% favouring repeal (...and it was already within the margin of error, so you're premature to say most people favour repeal). Not using a likely voter model would most likely knock this down further.


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    Registered User Despite What You May WANT To Believe.  Liking Obama is Now The Minority Opinion Locke4God's Avatar
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    Re: Despite What You May WANT To Believe. Liking Obama is Now The Minority Opinion

    Even so if you look at the number who support the Health Plan it's only around 40%, so even in conceding your deductions it is clear far more want it repealed than don't.

    Further study shows that around 42% strongly want repeal, while only about 28% strongly support it. Again, a clear margin, even if you conceded that the poll is 3% biased.

    Regardless of bias though, Rasmussen consistently picks results within 1%, so whether a sampling of likely voters could be considered a "bias" or not, it is remains the most accurate polling center.
    Last edited by Locke4God; 06-14-2012 at 03:02 PM.

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